By: Jan R. Steinholt, Revolusjon!
December 11, 2024
The butchers distribute the Syrian carcass. Illustration by Carlos Latuff.
The Syrian tragedy is a trophy for Israel and a strategic defeat for the Axis of Resistance. It is also a strategic defeat for Russia, albeit with a possible peace solution in Ukraine as compensation.
The bloodthirsty jihadist commander and “emir” Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, is poised to become Syria's new head of state. The era of the Assad family and the Ba'ath Party in Syria is over, and the West is celebrating the jihadists' march into Damascus with fanfare and cheers.
Brutal ruler in May, pragmatic and moderate rebel in December
Al-Jolani is the leader of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a name change for the notorious Nusra Front he built up as al-Qaeda's official Syrian branch. This happened in 2011, on the direct orders of Iraqi al-Qaeda leader al-Baghdadi, when the so-called Arab Spring reached Damascus, two years before Baghdadi declared the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). Jolani is so soaked in blood that in 2017, the US offered a $10 million reward for information about his whereabouts.
Transformed from wanted beheader to moderate liberator
Now it doesn't matter. He has suddenly become a hero and a liberator, according to almost all Western media and heads of state. President-elect Donald Trump is a partial exception. “Remember, all these people want to send planes into our buildings,” he commented on X (formerly Twitter).
From bad to much worse
The narrative painted in the media is that Bashar al-Assad, now in Russian asylum in Moscow, was a monster who ran Syria into the ground economically. They fail to mention the Western sanctions that have starved the population; and they do not mention that the American occupiers in the northeast have seized and stolen the country's oil resources.
Compared to the West's and Israel's new protégé, HTS commander Jolani with a past as leader of the Nusra Front, the Assad family seems like Sunday school teachers. When the 37 different militias start chopping off the heads of political opponents and religious minorities such as Christians and Alawites, as well as each other, it is not inconceivable that millions of Syrians will miss the corrupt regime that was.
Father and son Hafez and Bashar al-Assad ruled a repressive regime for many decades. Yet Syria was secular (the Assad family belonged to the Alawite religious minority), and the Ba'ath Party's Syria has for generations been a relatively safe haven for a number of Palestinian resistance organizations. The regime's repression has encompassed organized opposition in general, while has primarily targeted Islamist and sectarian movements.
Assad fell into the trap
The 13-year defense campaign against Israel- and Qatar-funded terrorist groups has effectively prevented Assad from launching a two-front war. For several years, Syria has put up with regular Israeli missile and air strikes against Syrian territory without responding to the attacks - for fear of giving the Zionist state a pretext to go to all-out war. If Syria had had the courage and ability to defy the enemy militarily, the situation in Syria, Palestine and Lebanon might have been different. Either for the worse or for the better. We will never know.
The idea behind the Astana negotiations between Syria, Turkey, Iran and Russia was that Turkey would keep a lid on the HTS gang in Idlib and thereby reassure Assad. There are several indications that Assad was tricked into a trap when Saudi Arabia and other Arab states brought Syria back into the fold in 2023. The regime in Damascus believed that the diplomatic thaw would protect against Gulf states Islamist offshoots attempting to topple itself. That's why he is said to have refused military support from Iran and Russia until the very end. And then it was too late.
Russian defeat
As late as November 29, the Russians tried to persuade Assad to negotiate with the more “legitimate” rebel groups, perhaps as part of securing the naval base in Tartus and the air base in Hmeimim, but Assad said no. Russia is said to have reached an agreement with the new regime on the fate of the bases in Latakia province and has changed its diplomatic rhetoric.
Since 1971, the bases have been Russia's and the former Soviet Union's only direct military foothold in the region. Losing them would be a significant Russian defeat. But even greater things are at stake for Russia, such as the future of the BRICS alliance. Its partner state Turkey is on a direct collision course with the BRICS states of Russia, China and Iran. Other extended arms of the US and NATO are BRICS members Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
If Saudi Arabia doesn't screw up, the way is now open for the old Turkish-American dream of an oil and gas pipeline from Qatar to Turkey through Syrian territory. It could replace petroleum from both Iran and Russia. Assad put his foot down on these plans. Qatar responded by funneling even more money and weapons to its proxy militias in Syria. It should not be forgotten that President Tayyip Erdoğan and Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, are allies on several levels - including through the Muslim Brotherhood.
Bartering for Ukraine
Several sources believe that a deal has been secretly struck between Vladimir Putin and the incoming Trump administration in Washington. The short version is that Russia will let the US act freely in the Middle East - Iran being a notable exception - in return for Trump ensuring that Ukraine enters into a peace agreement that largely meets Russian demands.
The rumors are supported by several statements from Trump on social media, in which the future US president calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine and puts words in the mouth of the reluctant Volodymyr Zelensky that Ukraine wants a peace agreement with a weakened Russia.
Western and Norwegian politicians and “experts” have picked up on the signals and are adapting their language accordingly. Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide has started using words like “peace solution” and “Ukraine” in the same breath, in contrast to the obligatory war cries we've become so used to hearing over the past two years. Just two months ago, Eide stated that “we don't want a compromise between Russia and Ukraine”. A peace agreement is a compromise.
Setback for Palestine
“What has happened in Syria is a serious setback for Hezbollah in Lebanon, and not least for the Palestinian resistance. Syria has been a crucial transit route for arms supplies from Iran to Lebanon.
The lightning offensive from Idlib took place in close cooperation with Turkey, Israel and the USA. The prelude, in the form of daily Israeli bombing of Syrian targets for months and pressure from Turkey, indicates to a Turkish-Zionist plan for a form of power sharing in Syria. This is backed by the US, although the Pentagon and the CIA each supply their own warring factions in the flora of Syrian, Turkmen and Kurdish militias. Turkey and the US carry out bombing and artillery attacks inside Syria in favor of “their” respective protégés, officially to prevent terrorist organizations from filling the vacuum!
Ironically, the “Islamists” with roots in al-Qaeda is that they have no differences with the Zionist state of Israel. On the contrary, for them Israel is an ally and friend in the fight against the Shia-dominated so-called resistance axis, in particular Iran, Hezbollah, Shia militias in Iraq and Sunni-oriented Hamas in Gaza.
Israel expands eastwards
As soon as the “liberators” had taken Damascus, Israel occupied the buffer zone on the Golan Heights, as usual in violation of all international law. Since the “liberation” of Damascus, Israel has attacked hundreds of targets in Syria, without the terrorist groups HTS, SNA and SFA protesting in the slightest. Israeli media describe the air strikes as the largest the country's air force has carried out in its entire history. This must mean something. The navy has also participated in missile attacks, sinking the Syrian navy. The pretext for the attacks is to prevent weapons stockpiles from falling into the “wrong hands”. It is just as likely that the aim is to erase traces of Israeli deliveries of weapons and equipment to the “rebels”. Several reports suggest that Israeli forces have advanced to a few miles west of the Syrian capital. Calls from the Norwegian UN envoy Geir O. Pedersen for Israel to stop the attacks have so far fallen on deaf ears.
Greater Israel to be realized at the expense of the Syrians
Two days after the Islamists captured Damascus, Israel's internationally sought-after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held his first press conference in 99 days.
“We are transforming the face of the Middle East, as I promised,” Netanyahu said. “The State of Israel is establishing its status as a power in our region, as it has not been for decades.” “Whoever cooperates with us reaps great benefits. Whoever attacks us loses greatly,” he said, adding that he wants to see a different Syria, for the benefit of both Israel and Syrians, reports Times of Israel.
From this message, we can easily conclude that Greater Israel will be realized at the expense of the Syrians. Either the headhunters in Damascus comply with Israel's demands, or we can expect a new “war on terror” from Israel, the US and NATO against the same terrorists they helped bring to power.
source: https://www.revolusjon.no/globalt/midtosten/vestlig-jubel-for-moderate-hodekappere-i-syria
translated by International Marxist-Leninist Archive